Mortgage Rate Predictions: How High Will Rates Go?

July 12, 2021


For Arman Aroutiounian, Reali’s Vice President of Capital Markets, a deep understanding of capital markets and passion for finance come naturally. Combine those attributes with a positive attitude, driving initiatives to the finish line, relationship building, and a passion for helping our customers secure the lowest rates, and it’s no wonder he leads the charge in driving Reali’s capital markets strategy.

Even though Arman’s team is center stage in ensuring our borrowers are quoted the most competitive rates and save money, he most often is found behind the scenes providing data-driven insights to inform strategic, financial, and operational decision-making across Reali.

Here are Arman’s predictions on the housing market and mortgage rates for the rest of 2021 — a topic closely tied to those of us hoping to buy in the near future.

What is driving the mortgage rates right now?

The biggest driver of mortgage rates today are the actions the Federal Reserve is taking to curb the economic impact of the pandemic. Keeping the benchmark rate near zero and the purchase of treasuries and mortgage-backed securities are all factors that affect mortgage rates.

What future events may also influence mortgage rates between now and the end of 2021?

A decline in COVID-related cases and general global unrest will influence the direction in which rates will go over the next year.

What factors are most likely to drive rates up and how much of an increase do you anticipate?

There’s a combination of factors that direct rate movement, some of which include a reversal in the Federal Reserve’s policy to keep rates low, a decline in the purchase of treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, increased (or expected) inflation, and a rise in corporate profits which may cause greater returns in the stock market. However, I do not anticipate mortgage rates rising by more than 0.5% by the end of 2021.

In your prediction, will mortgage rates go up or down between now and the end of 2021?

I don’t foresee any meaningful deviation in mortgage rates this year. If I had to make a prediction, I could see the 30-year fixed mortgage rate hover around 3.25% and the 15-year fixed at around 2.4%. I attribute the move to rising inflation and a potential tightening of the monetary policy.

Should those looking to buy and refinance move forward or wait it out a while longer?

Whether you are a renter or an existing homeowner looking to find a home more suitable to your lifestyle, I recommend you move forward with purchasing. There are many unique benefits such as building equity and tax breaks only available to homeowners. Plus, historically low rates can help you increase your purchase power despite price growth. If you are looking to become a landlord, be sure to crunch the numbers and cover all costs for a solid return on your investment home. For those looking to refinance, this is a very opportune time to secure a lower rate and save thousands of dollars over the term of your new loan.

Do you have any tips for buyers and refinancers to successfully navigate today’s real estate market?

  1. Work with a knowledgeable loan officer who can help you determine your real budget, provide you with a home loan pre-approval and find the best loan for your needs.
  2. Homebuyer bidding wars happen on 3 of every 4 transactions. Due to the lack of inventory and increase in the number of buyers, it’s crucial to explore modern-day programs that can give you a competitive edge. Reali’s Cash Offer and Trade-In products were created specifically to help buyers strengthen their offer in a highly competitive market.
  3. Buying and selling a home are some of life’s most significant milestones. Even though the process can be emotional, try to always derive your decisions from a place of rationality. Our goal at Reali is to help make this process simple, affordable, and stress-free.

Whether rates move up or down, we’re here to help you meet your homeownership goals and stay current on housing trends. Receive your free neighborhood market report to view trends in your area. If you are ready to sell soon, start the process now.